The Africa Institute for Research in Economics and Social Sciences will welcome Réda Marakbi, Professor of Economics at the University of Artois, to its upcoming Research Seminar on Wednesday, February 18th at 12:30 p.m. He will present his paper examining how food insecurity shapes irregular migration aspirations in the Middle East and North Africa.

Abstract: 

This paper examines how food insecurity shapes irregular migration aspirations in the Middle East and North Africa. Using micro-data from the seventh wave of the Arab Barometer, we construct an experiential index of food insecurity and distinguish between aspirations to migrate regularly and irregularly. A simple theoretical model shows that food insecurity increases migration pressure and shifts preferences toward irregular routes. Probit and multinomial probit estimates confirm that food insecurity significantly increases overall migration aspirations, with much stronger effects on irregular migration. The results remain robust across different subsamples and when addressing endogeneity through an instrumental-variable approach. Moreover, effects are largest for aspirations toward Europe and high-income Arab destinations, consistent with higher perceived returns and access constraints. These findings highlight that development and humanitarian aid aimed at reducing food insecurity can play a critical role in mitigating irregular migration pressures and should be integrated into broader migration and development strategies.