A socio-economic impact analysis of the political crisis in Burundi with a focus on children

In this paper we present an social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) performed with a macro-micro-simulation framework. To achieve these objectives, we constructed a macro-micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework allows us to link shocks of a more macroeconomic nature such as reductions in foreign aid, reductions in the supply of public services, on household and more specifically on children. Scenarios were designed and applied to represent some of the manifestations of the political crisis. The distributional analysis is performed with the standard indices (FGT and Gini) and we extend our social analysis on three social indicators by combining results from our CGE model and elasticities linking growth and social indicators from the literature. The macroeconomic and sectoral results show significant negative effects on GDP, skilled employment and unemployment. The social impact analysis carried out with the results of the model and the actual data observed show a very significant negative impact on the three social indicators selected, i.e. infant mortality (under 5 years of age), net enrollment rate and school retention rate

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